Whereas the DMK is alleged to have unofficially set a deadline of three March to finish its seat-sharing talks with the Congress, the Stalin-Chidambaram assembly didn’t result in any rapid breakthrough.

The events made no formal bulletins on seat sharing submit the assembly. P. Chidambaram, afterwards, didn’t tackle the media.

The DMK’s 3 March deadline has been set contemplating nominations to the Rajya Sabha finish on 5 March, in line with no less than two DMK occasion functionaries, who spoke to ThePrint on the situation of anonymity.

They stated the occasion made means for a greater provide for Congress Tuesday—it was prepared to grant 29-plus-two Rajya Sabha seats. This, they emphasised, could be the “last provide”.

Earlier than the assembly, the DMK had supplied the Congress 25 meeting seats, matching its 2021 tally, together with one Rajya Sabha seat.

The Congress has been demanding 34 to 41 meeting seats and two Rajya Sabha seats.

Talking to the media after, State Congress President Okay. Selvaperuthagai known as the assembly with Stalin “a courtesy name”.

Furthermore, he dismissed reviews that the DMK had set a proper deadline for Congress to answer a seat-sharing provide.

“For the reason that election date has not been introduced but, there may be nonetheless time to finalise on seat-sharing. Negotiations are ongoing; we’ll announce the variety of seats after that,” he stated.

DMK Organising Secretary R.S. Bharathi additionally denied a “formal deadline”, however stated that the DMK had prolonged a proposal to the Congress.

“We now have conveyed our provide. The ultimate negotiations will likely be made by our chief, who will announce the identical,” Bharathi stated.

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The grounds of the negotiations

The Congress, which contested 25 seats within the 2021 Tamil Nadu polls and received 18, has been flexing its muscle within the seat-sharing talks this time amid its essential rival Bharatiya Janata Occasion’s aggressive bid to broaden within the state. The Congress has not been in energy in Tamil Nadu since 1967, however has had a bigger presence within the state than the BJP.

The Congress wouldn’t wish to cede any house for nationwide events, together with the BJP, in Tamil Nadu politics and wish to capitalise on any anti-BJP sentiment within the state as a nationwide occasion. So, it’s jostling arduous with its ally, DMK, for extra space.

The presence of actor-turned-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) this time has boosted the Congress’s bargaining energy. Nonetheless, Congress leaders and analysts really feel that whereas it has a bargaining chip, it can’t afford to let its ties with the DMK bitter over seat-sharing.

Arun Kumar, Assistant Professor, Political Science, VIT Chennai, informed ThePrint, “This time the one purpose for stern negotiation is TVK. However, if the Congress is leaving DMK with out realizing the true energy of TVK on the bottom, it is going to be a catastrophe for the occasion. It was solely in 2014 that it contested the parliamentary elections alone, and solely in Kanyakumari might it retain the deposit. They don’t have an sufficient maintain on the vote financial institution.”

“The Congress and communist events can collectively win the elections by being part of the alliance, as they bring about collectively the minority and backward courses, however leaving the alliance could be a mistake,” he added.

Nonetheless, with the DMK having introduced in newer companions into its alliance this time, and with different allies equivalent to Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) additionally bargaining for extra seats, the ruling occasion is unable to entertain the Congress’s calls for past a degree.

Why Congress management intervened

Senior Congress leaders imagine that going too arduous on the DMK could backfire, because the occasion has restricted choices in Tamil Nadu by itself.

Within the seat-sharing talks, Congress has restricted leverage towards the DMK. Now, it’s now not indispensable for giving expression to the state’s anti‑BJP sentiments.

The DMK has taken a clearer opposing stance to the BJP.

A Congress functionary informed ThePrint, “The DMK has been a long-time ally, they usually backed Rahul Gandhi inside the INDIA Bloc, giving the strongest help to the alliance. The [Congress] occasion wouldn’t wish to lose the alliance on the grounds of those variations, as a result of even it is aware of the worth of the DMK, regionally and nationally.”

The Congress is predicted to carry a rally in Chennai quickly, however functionaries stated that it won’t be a serious present of energy by the occasion by itself.

“Breaking the alliance would isolate the occasion in Tamil Nadu, and the energy of the alliance is already established. It will be tough to determine a powerful, confirmed vote financial institution to counter DMK on the seat-sharing talks,” one other Congress occasion functionary stated.

Earlier than Chidambaram met Stalin Tuesday, Congress leaders Sonia Gandhi, Mallikarjun Kharge, and Okay.C. Venugopal had a gathering relating to the seat-sharing stalemate. The excessive command has not changed Chodankar however has determined to vary its negotiation technique by deputing Chidambaram.

Talking to ThePrint, Girish Chodankar stated the occasion had not reached a last resolution on seat-sharing. He additionally stated that there’ll quickly be an announcement.

Requested whether or not DMK has supplied 29-plus-two Rajya Sabha seats to the Congress, he stated, “As soon as it’s confirmed, we’ll announce the identical. There isn’t any last resolution but.”

DMK Spokesperson Saravanan Annadurai informed ThePrint, “With P. Chidambaram right here for talks, the intention is to finalise the seat sharing and finish the negotiations.”

Earlier Tuesday, Saravanan Annadurai, talking to reporters, stated that the Congress had expressed its dedication to resolving the seat-sharing stalemate and being part of the DMK-led alliance.

“The RSS and BJP need the Congress to go away the DMK alliance. That is its want listing; it needs to isolate Congress. All these minor hiccups will come up in each seat-sharing negotiation, and finally, we’ll resolve them,” he stated.

Commenting on speculations that the Congress was seeking to the TVK for an alliance, Saravanan Annadurai stated that nobody wished to kind an alliance with TVK. “There are too many points…Let it (TVK) resolve them, then it may possibly speak about all the opposite points,” he emphasised.

Why Congress has extra to lose

Whereas TVK is a bargaining chip, the Congress lacks actual choices and must do way more to remain related in Tamil Nadu politics, in line with analysts.

Sunilkumar V.M., an electoral analyst and political science college at a non-public college in Chennai, informed ThePrint, “In comparison with Congress, VCK has proven their energy with a stronghold on minority votes, which is mirrored in occasion conferences and different protests, however such a present of energy has not been showcased by Congress in the previous few years.”

“Many senior leaders are additionally shedding their floor in areas of their dominance. Within the INDIA bloc, the DMK prolonged full help to Rahul Gandhi. The DMK has taken a powerful stand towards the BJP; even the Congress has not. If the alliance breaks, it should result in extra harm to the Congress than to the DMK, because the latter can also be contemplating minor events, with the minority vote banks, such because the Indian Union Muslim League, for alliances,” Sunilkumar V.M. added.

Profitable from areas equivalent to Ponneri, Sriperumbudur, Erode, Sivakasi, and Vilavancode, the Congress secured 4.29 % of votes within the 2021 Tamil Nadu meeting elections. However it additionally misplaced key battles in Uthangarai, Kallakurichi, and Coimbatore to the AIADMK or BJP.

Now that Chidambaram has intervened, the involvement of senior Congress leaders in Tamil Nadu politics must be one thing greater than rising the occasion’s visibility, Professor Kumar stated.

Though Chidambaram has intervened, the dedication of Congress leaders, equivalent to Rahul Gandhi, Kharge, or Sonia Gandhi is questionable as a result of they don’t go to Tamil Nadu as continuously as BJP leaders, he stated. “Congress leaders must be extra concerned.”

The DMK, in the meantime, has strengthened its choices with new companions, equivalent to IUML and Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), and older companions, such because the VCK, Communist Occasion of India and the Communist Occasion of India-Marxist. This permits the DMK to compensate for any Congress shortfall if talks break down.

DMK’s minor allies

Provided that the newer or extra assertive companions have particular vote banks or vote banks in politically delicate areas, the DMK doesn’t have a lot room to accommodate the Congress’s calls for.

For instance, DMDK is a big “vote-diverting” power amongst sections of the Most Backward Courses (MBC) and sure Different Backwards Courses, particularly in elements of southern and central Tamil Nadu,  commanding a considerable vote share in choose constituencies. DMDK may also help the DMK in fragmenting the NDA alliance in OBC‑heavy belts.

Furthermore, occasion leaders say, the DMDK has introduced an alliance with the DMK for the primary time. Now, the DMK wouldn’t wish to stroll again on its phrase relating to the promised seats, simply to provide extra to the Congress, as they’d not need the occasion to lean in the direction of the opposition.

Equally, IUML can appeal to Muslim voters, particularly in Ramanathapuram, Tirunelveli, Kanyakumari, and a few pockets in Madurai and Coimbatore.

IUML has explicitly opposed the BJP in Tamil Nadu, strengthening the DMK’s ideological stance as a secular and minority‑pleasant alliance. Diminishing IUML’s allocation of seats would invite robust criticism.

Earlier Monday, Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK)—led by Thol Thirumavalavan—had their first spherical of seat-sharing talks with the DMK. The occasion demanded 12 seats, almost double the seats it contested in 2021, whereas stating that it doesn’t search energy sharing.

Nonetheless, Kumar stated no occasion can substitute the Congress for Tamil Nadu’s DMK, because it has a powerful electoral base in Kanyakumari and different southern districts. It acts as a catalyst for the DMK, added Professor Kumar.

“With out the Congress, the DMK would have a problem in these areas, which is why it’s agreeing to provide virtually 30 seats,” stated Kumar. “All of the events, together with the minor events, want to extend their vote share and political presence, so their share of seats can’t be lowered.”

(Edited by Madhurita Goswami)

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