New Delhi: Nitish Kumar’s political profession actually began with an ultimatum. In 1985, when he was contesting his third election after dropping the earlier two, he addressed a big public assembly in Harnaut. There, he declared, “That is the final time I’m asking you to vote for me. If you don’t elect me now, I’ll by no means contest an election once more.”

Nitish later recalled that the gang fell silent, and he seen tears within the eyes of individuals sitting in entrance. “It had touched their emotional chord,” writes Arun Sinha, Nitish Kumar’s good friend, in his e book Battle for Bihar: Nitish Kumar and the Theatre of Energy.

However he didn’t fail, and since that victory in 1985, he has by no means regarded again.

He additionally realized the methods of staying related, profitable one election after one other by switching alliances every time wanted, and finally grew to become the central determine in Bihar politics, overtaking even Lalu Prasad Yadav, who had as soon as appeared invincible.

After 15 uninterrupted years as chief minister, Nitish confronted two main challenges in 2020: The human and administrative disaster of Covid-19, and the political problem from coalition companion BJP, which used LJP chief Chirag Paswan to dent Nitish’s political capital.

Nitish as soon as once more appealed on to the voters, saying that 2020 can be his final election. As soon as once more the folks trusted him. However this time, the JD(U) was diminished to 43 seats. However, maybe recognising that Nitish was essential to the alliance, the BJP accepted him as chief minister.

BJP’s 2025 technique

For the 2025 Meeting elections, the BJP initially selected to not marketing campaign collectively with Nitish to keep away from antagonising its cadre which needed a BJP chief minister. However after the primary section, the BJP realised its mistake. There was no anti-incumbency towards Nitish; actually, EBC voters and girls have been sympathetic in direction of him, viewing him as an ageing however reliable chief.

From Amit Shah to Samrat Choudhary, BJP leaders needed to reiterate publicly that “there is no such thing as a emptiness for the chief minister’s publish in Bihar”, reaffirming that Nitish would proceed as CM after the mandate.

Defied well being considerations

The historic 2025 mandate as soon as once more established Nitish as the one fixed in Bihar politics. His welfare-oriented governance, give attention to ladies’s empowerment, the ‘Sushasan Babu’ picture, and the NDA’s broad social coalition contributed to the victory.

However the BJP’s historic efficiency, with practically a 90% strike price, has now posed new questions: Will the BJP enable Nitish to finish a full time period? Will he, given his well being and occasional missteps, full his tenure? Or, contemplating Bihar’s caste complexities, will the BJP keep away from destabilising the present steadiness?

Yashwant Deshmukh, founding father of C-Voter, notes that Nitish has been written off many occasions however has all the time bounced again. “There was no anti-incumbency towards him. Girls voters, empowered over the past 20 years, trusted him regardless of rumours about his well being.”

Mockery, rumours & Nitish’s marketing campaign

Earlier than the marketing campaign started, RJD chief Tejashwi Yadav mocked Nitish’s well being, and social media trolls focused the chief minister for garlanding a girl candidate throughout a Muzaffarpur rally. JDU working president Sanjay Jha tried to cease him, however Nitish scolded Jha and positioned the garland round Rama Nishad’s neck. Even Rahul Gandhi mocked Nitish’s well being, claiming he was a “puppet in Amit Shah’s fingers.” Nitish didn’t reply.

Regardless of the well being rumours, Nitish addressed 84 rallies—just one lower than Tejashwi—on the age of 74. Residence Minister Amit Shah, in an interview to NDTV, defended Nitish, mentioning that anybody holding “5 or 6 rallies a day” was clearly match.

JD(U)’s defence

JD(U) spokesperson Neeraj Kumar mentioned, “All through the marketing campaign, Nitish-ji held greater than 80 rallies. He’s wholesome and match to proceed as chief minister.”

He cited an incident throughout ticket distribution, when Nitish personally intervened to offer the celebration image to Ratnesh Sada after studying that his seat was being shifted with out his approval. “This exhibits how mentally alert he’s.”

BJP’s limitations

Many BJP leaders admit that after such a robust mandate, Nitish should be revered. Any try to sideline him would backfire with ladies and EBC voters. The NDA fought the election beneath Nitish’s management, and the Maharashtra system can’t be utilized in Bihar.

Ashwini Kumar of TISS argues that Bihar’s social demography could be very completely different from Maharashtra. Nitish and the BJP complement one another like “Luv-Kush”, and the BJP can not danger dropping its backward-caste help base.

Shivanand Tiwari, a founding father of the Samata Celebration, says Nitish is doing the whole lot the BJP desires. “Why would the BJP danger dropping EBC help? Nitish’s function is important even for the central authorities’s stability.”

Author Prem Kumar Mani says that Bihar’s social chemistry is exclusive, and BJP’s Hindutva narrative has by no means totally succeeded within the state. The BJP has limitations with out Nitish, who instructions each the EBC and girls’s vote—a place just like what Karpoori Thakur as soon as loved.

Succession inside JD(U)

Because the NDA started making ready to kind the brand new authorities, the query of succession was inevitable. JD(U) leaders say Nitish will make a selection on the proper time; for now, the second has not come.

Many throughout the celebration warn that JD(U) dangers a destiny just like Odisha’s BJD, which has no clear successor to Naveen Patnaik. With out Nitish, the JD(U) may merge with both the BJP or the RJD. However solely Nitish is aware of the reply.

Nitish has by no means publicly indicated a successor. Even shut aides like Vijay Choudhary, Sanjay Jha, and Lallan Singh admit they have no idea his thoughts. Every time he senses disloyalty, Nitish acts decisively. For example, R.C.P. Singh was dropped after he began getting near Amit Shah; Jitan Ram Manjhi was eliminated after rebelling; Lallan Singh was changed as state president when he questioned inner-party democracy.

In 2023, Nitish reassumed the celebration presidency from Lallan after rumours of a secret assembly with Tejashwi.

JD(U) insiders admit there is no such thing as a second line of management with stature anyplace close to Nitish’s.

The Nishant query

Regardless of some strain throughout the cadre to carry Nitish’s son Nishant Kumar into politics, Nitish has not agreed. JDU spokesperson Neeraj Kumar notes, “The cadre desires Nishant to enter politics—it can energise the youth. However Nitish-ji has not allowed it.”

Through the marketing campaign, Nitish repeatedly criticised Lalu Prasad Yadav for selling his household, saying his socialist background prevented him from supporting dynastic politics. Senior chief Ok.C. Tyagi confirms that Nitish’s ideological roots make him reluctant to push Nishant ahead.

With no clear succession plan in JD(U), and with the BJP unable to danger generational change, Nitish stays indispensable. Bihar voters have rejected each Prashant Kishor and Tejashwi Yadav on this election, reaffirming Nitish’s centrality at age 74.

Author Prem Kumar Mani notes that Karpoori Thakur had groomed Nitish, Lalu, Ram Vilas Paswan, and plenty of others. However Nitish and Lalu haven’t created a comparable second line. The BJP, after Sushil Modi’s demise, additionally lacks a backward-caste chief of Nitish’s stature. Because of this Nitish will proceed till he himself decides to step down.

(Edited by Viny Mishra)

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