New Delhi: Final November, Badruddin Ajmal, founding father of All India United Democratic Entrance (AIUDF), landed to a heat reception at Guwahati airport in Assam after a nine-month absence. Supporters crowded the arrival space, jostling for selfies and chanting slogans in his reward.

His airport welcome, nevertheless, masked a far grimmer political actuality.

Now, because the Congress prepares for meeting polls within the state this yr, it has shut the door on any potential alliance with Ajmal’s get together, underscoring a protracted and uneasy relationship formed by mutual suspicion, heightened in recent times by the BJP’s rise in Assam.

Ajmal, whose declared property exceed Rs 155 crore, misplaced the Dhubri Lok Sabha seat—which he had received in 2009, 2014 and 2019—to the Congress’s Rakibul Hussain in 2024 by a large margin of over 10 lakh votes.

The AIUDF itself drew a clean within the Lok Sabha polls. It was the primary election for the reason that get together’s formation in October 2005—when Ajmal, then chief of Jamiat Ulema-e-Hind’s Assam chapter, had introduced collectively a number of Muslim-led platforms—that it didn’t win a single seat within the state.

Since then, the Congress has maintained a acutely aware distance from the AIUDF, loudly rebuffing all its overtures for an alliance forward of the 2026 polls. Earlier this week, Assam Congress president Gaurav Gogoi dominated out any such risk.

“After the AIUDF’s full failure within the final Lok Sabha elections, its political calculation of crossing the electoral hurdle within the 2026 meeting elections by aligning with the Congress is solely misplaced,” mentioned Gaurav.

The remarks have been in response to Ajmal’s assertion that “unity” was the one solution to defeat the ruling BJP and that he would “one hundred pc think about” an alliance with the Congress if the get together got here ahead.

Within the 2021 Assam polls, the AIUDF was a part of the Congress-led opposition alliance that unsuccessfully challenged the BJP. Just a few months after the elections, the Congress snapped ties with the get together, accusing it of working on the behest of the BJP and Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma.

“A dive into Assam’s political previous will present you that the Congress, for essentially the most half for the reason that AIUDF’s delivery, held Ajmal’s motives as suspect. In that context, the 2021 dalliance was however an exception, which additionally got here beneath heavy hearth from high Congress leaders, together with Digvijaya Singh after the election rout,” an office-bearer of the All India Congress Committee (AICC) working in Assam informed ThePrint.

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Additionally Learn: Lack of improvement, a necessity for change — why Assam’s Dhubri voted AIUDF chief Ajmal out

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AIUDF-Congress trajectory

The AIUDF was shaped in 2005 within the backdrop of the Supreme Court docket scrapping the Unlawful Migrants (Willpower by Tribunals) Act, enacted in 1983 when Indira Gandhi was prime minister.

Below the Act, the onus of proving somebody an unlawful immigrant in Assam lay on the complainant, not the suspect. It was round this time, when apprehensions amongst Muslims of East Bengal origin have been operating excessive, that the Assam United Democratic Entrance (AUDF)—later rechristened because the AIUDF—got here into being.

In accordance with the 2011 Census, Muslims account for 34 % of Assam’s inhabitants.

Within the 2006 Assam election, the AIUDF made a formidable debut, successful 10 seats and rising as an element behind the Congress’s tally dropping from 71 to 53. The state management of the Assam Congress, sensing the risk Ajmal posed to its captive Muslim vote base, felt it vital to not give him additional room to develop.

Tarun Gogoi, then chief minister, conveyed this in no unsure phrases to the Congress excessive command, which was not averse to embracing Ajmal. Nevertheless, Gogoi made it clear that he would settle for Ajmal provided that the AIUDF merged with the Congress.

Gogoi believed that associating with the AIUDF wouldn’t solely loosen the Congress’s grip over Muslim votes but in addition alienate majority ethnic teams such because the Ahoms in a state the place cultural anxieties over migration and demographic shifts have lengthy animated politics.

The AICC ultimately adopted Gogoi’s line as effectively. “Ajmal was one among us and we now have requested him to hitch the get together,” Veerappa Moily, AICC’s then Assam in-charge, informed reporters in 2008.

Within the 2011 Assam polls, the Congress regained an absolute majority, successful 78 of 126 meeting seats beneath Gogoi’s management. With the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) depleted, Ajmal’s AIUDF emerged because the principal opposition by advantage of being the second-largest get together with 18 seats.

Nevertheless, it was the AIUDF’s efficiency within the 2014 Lok Sabha elections—when it received three of Assam’s 14 seats—that when once more set the alarm bells ringing for the Congress, already weakened by intense factionalism.

Within the 2016 state polls, the BJP ousted the Congress from energy after three consecutive Gogoi-led phrases. The AIUDF’s tally fell from 18 to 13 meeting seats, whereas the Congress received 26.

Until the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, when the AIUDF managed to retain solely Ajmal’s Dhubri constituency, Gogoi ensured the Congress saved its distance from the get together. Nevertheless, he softened his opposition in his ultimate years, earlier than passing away months forward of the 2021 elections.

In 2021, the Congress lastly inducted the AIUDF into the opposition alliance. The consequence, nevertheless, was underwhelming, with each events enhancing their tally by solely three seats every because the BJP returned to energy.

“We gained nothing out of that alliance. As an alternative, we suffered losses in Higher Assam, the area with the utmost variety of seats within the 126-member meeting. The BJP efficiently labelled us a Muslim get together. After delimitation, the variety of seats the place Muslim votes will resolve the result has come all the way down to round 23. Why will Muslims vote for Ajmal understanding effectively it received’t make any distinction in dislodging the BJP? We should persuade them that the precise alternative could be to again the Congress,” mentioned the AICC functionary.

‘BJP’s B-Crew’

Branding the AIUDF because the BJP’s “B-Crew” can be a part of the Congress’s technique to forestall a cut up in Muslim votes. The get together highlights Ajmal and his household’s “connections with Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma” as a part of these efforts, significantly whereas canvassing in minority-dominated districts.

“Ajmal is nothing however a mouthpiece for the BJP like another events, together with the AIMIM. He has nothing in anyway to do with the UPA (then Congress-led United Progressive Alliance) as he claims,” AICC common secretary (communications) Jairam Ramesh had mentioned in an announcement in 2023.

The Congress, which has already introduced that it intends to area candidates on 100 seats, is at present in talks with the Left events and the Akhil Gogoi-led Raijor Dal for an alliance within the upcoming Assam polls. Akhil Gogoi’s bitter ties with Ajmal should not misplaced on the Congress management.

(Edited by Nida Fatima Siddiqui)

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Additionally Learn: From allies to bitter enemies: How Congress-AIUDF relations soured in Assam

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