So, wars will go on. That won’t cease Indian politics. Come hell or excessive water, Indian politics will go on.

Indian politics is now going into a really busy section. In truth, it’s already begun that section with 5 state elections. Or okay, 4 states and one Union Territory.

That’s West Bengal, Tamil Nadu—I’m itemizing the massive states first, not essentially the order through which they are going to go to the polls. So West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam, Puducherry, which is a Union Territory.

Within the first spherical, three will go to the polls: Kerala, Assam and Puducherry. After which now we have Tamil Nadu after which West Bengal in two phases. In Might first week, the outcomes will come out. This can be a busy six-week session.

Now it is a very attention-grabbing set of elections as a result of every state provides us a distinct image. In a single state, Assam, the Bharatiya Janata Get together (BJP) is the incumbent. In one other state, West Bengal, the BJP is a challenger—a detailed challenger they might suppose. The Trinamool Congress (TMC) is the incumbent.

Kerala—the Left Entrance. The one place the place the Left holds energy in India, apart from certainly the JNU Union. There too it’s a distinct set of Left politics. In any other case, that is the one holdout of the Left. And now, they are going to be battling double anti-incumbency and the Congress is the challenger.

In Tamil Nadu, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) alliance, which incorporates the Congress and the Left—it’s an outdated alliance—they’re the incumbent. Importantly in Tamil Nadu, political mixtures have modified considerably.

In Assam, whereas the BJP is incumbent, that’s yet another state the place it’s a direct conflict between the Congress and the BJP—the BJP because the double incumbent and the Congress because the challenger.

After which Puducherry, the place the All India NR Congress get together, which is an ally of the Nationwide Democratic Alliance (NDA) or the BJP, is in energy. All of those go to the polls.

Now to speak a little bit bit about this and what’s at stake—we don’t do any opinion polls, we don’t make any predictions. That’s the explanation I’m not even saying a entrance runner, also-ran and many others. I’m solely telling you who’s the incumbent and who’s the challenger.

To make sense of all of this, now we have who else however DK Singh. So DK, what’s at stake in these elections? Inform me on every state in two sentences.

DK: In Assam, after all, the BJP is completely dominant and the BJP has to retain it as a result of within the different 4 states, the BJP can enhance.

West Bengal—the BJP is hoping quite a bit. However if you happen to take a look at the vote share, as you mentioned, we aren’t within the enterprise of predicting, so we take a look at the vote share and Mamata Banerjee’s maintain.

So in 2021 Meeting election, there was a spot of 10 share factors between the TMC’s and the BJP’s votes—the TMC obtained 48%, the BJP obtained 38%.

Now come to the 2024 Lok Sabha election—now we have to have a look at it as a result of the BJP typically tries to experience on PM Modi’s recognition. Now in 2024, the BJP’s vote share stays virtually the identical, goes as much as 39%, and the TMC’s share comes down from 48% to 46%.

Nonetheless there was a spot of seven share factors, even when individuals have been voting for the Prime Minister. So the BJP is, after all, very assured as a result of the TMC has been there since 2011, they suppose there’ll be sturdy anti-incumbency.

SG: Triple anti-incumbency.

DK: Triple anti-incumbency. However if you happen to take a look at the vote shares of those events within the final two elections—Lok Sabha and Meeting—appears powerful as it’s. 

Tamil Nadu—the DMK appears fairly effectively entrenched due to the alliance it has. However once more, the AIADMK is taking a look at anti-incumbency in opposition to the DMK coalition. However there, first time you’re seeing the AIADMK with none star energy. You don’t have any MGR, you don’t have any Jayalalithaa

DK: Now Stalin within the DMK is just not precisely Karunanidhi, however he’s seen as any person who builds consensus. He has his fan following, not Karunanidhi in stature, however he’s taken it fairly critically.

On the AIADMK aspect, EPS (Edappadi Okay Palaniswami) doesn’t have it but. We noticed final time what occurred—as soon as Jayalalithaa was out, the primary election they confronted in 2021, their vote share got here down, seats got here right down to 66—a drastic fall. And from there, now we have probably not seen the AIADMK enhance.

So if you happen to speak to Tamil politicians—I used to be simply earlier than coming right here sitting with (Congress’) Karthik Chidambaram—and we have been discussing. He says if you happen to take a look at the discourse in Tamil Nadu, EPS is hardly being talked about. In order that’s the place there isn’t any match—Stalin nonetheless has a character, EPS is just not that character but.

And there’s an EPS-OPS subject that we’ll come to.

You go to the subsequent state— Kerala. Once more, 10 years of anti-incumbency. We noticed what occurred within the latest native physique polls the place the United Democratic Entrance (UDF) swept. The UDF is the Congress-led coalition.

So there additionally you take a look at the development—the 2021 Meeting election, the LDF will get re-elected. By 2024, the UDF is again in its dominant place within the Lok Sabha election. It sweeps the election. Then native physique election final 12 months—additionally swept by the UDF.

So there the UDF appears to have an edge. However because the Congress individuals say, it’s at all times us who lose the elections—you by no means know.

SG: The UDF as we all know is the coalition led by the Congress get together. One is led by the Left get together CPM, that’s the Left Democratic Entrance (LDF). The United Democratic Entrance led by the Congress additionally has Indian Union Muslim League and Kerala Congress factions. So principally, it’s a coalition of Congress’ vote financial institution and Muslims and Christian minorities.

DK: Sure. So that’s the trophy. Kerala turns into powerful as a result of once more you hear quite a bit from the BJP, however the reality is the Muslims and the Christians represent 46% of the inhabitants there. It’s very powerful to separate that, which the BJP hoped.

They have been hoping {that a} part of Christians may stroll out of the UDF sway, which has probably not occurred. We didn’t see it within the native physique elections the place the Congress dominated these areas.

So what’s the BJP anticipating in Kerala? Finest state of affairs can be one way or the other a hung Meeting—a really excessive hope, however that’s the perfect they’ll hope for. Often, Kerala has clear verdicts.

Sure, as a result of each minorities—the Christians and the Muslims—appear to be going with the UDF this time.

The LDF once more—see what the BJP has carried out: the BJP has made main inroads into some Hindu vote banks, say the Ezhavas, the principle help base of the LDF. There additionally post-poll surveys let you know that the BJP has dented about 30–40% of the Ezhavas. That’s quite a bit. Among the many Nairs additionally, the BJP is making a dent.

So among the many Hindu vote financial institution, the BJP is developing. However when it comes to remaining translation into Meeting votes, (implying it’s open).

SG: Sure, however on the identical time appears like it will harm the LDF.

DK: It could harm the LDF, however the Nairs additionally—a major part votes for the Congress. Now there additionally the BJP is poaching. Shashi Tharoor being one.

Within the final Lok Sabha election, the primary time the BJP gained a seat, however that was extra in regards to the candidate. So, the BJP—we’re but to see that affect of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) translate into seats. They’ve been there for many years, however it hasn’t absolutely transformed into electoral success. So, that is what the BJP can be seeking to see this time.

Which brings us to Assam. And one other issue — if the LDF loses this time, the chief minister (Pinarayi Vijayan) goes to be 81 in a few months. It’s his final rodeo. After that, the LDF doesn’t have any massive face.

SG: In Kerala or nationally?

DK: In Kerala. Nationally additionally, who’s there now? So after 1977, will probably be the primary time when the Left won’t be in energy in any state, if the LDF loses. Greatest stakes for them. And as now we have seen, as soon as the Left loses, they begin receding—Bengal, Tripura. There the BJP could fancy its probabilities. In Tripura, a variety of Left base shifted to the BJP; in West Bengal, they shifted to the TMC.

Initially, kind of lock, inventory and barrel. So, the Left is just not in a position to hold ideological cohesion; it doesn’t switch into loyalty in durations of defeat.

SG: As a result of when the BJP began rising massively in Bengal, until then for the Left cadres and even the Congress, Mamata Banerjee was the largest adversary.

DK: Precisely. So even when they wouldn’t usually vote the BJP, their primary adversary was Mamata Banerjee, so that they went with the BJP to defeat her. The BJP would hope that repeats.

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Additionally Learn: Congress 1st Kerala checklist out, however suspense lingers over Kannur & Konni, seats eyed by heavyweights

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The Tamil Nadu state of affairs

SG: What’s the significance of the Congress and the BJP in Tamil Nadu?

DK: The Congress once more—they’ve managed to get three extra seats this time from the DMK.

SG: Three extra means?

DK: From 25 to twenty-eight seats. So the DMK has agreed to half with 28 seats to the Congress this time—nearly 10% of all of the seats. Sure, so the Congress with out the DMK is nothing there, simply because the BJP with out the AIADMK couldn’t do a lot. We noticed within the final Lok Sabha election, regardless of all of the hype, the AIADMK and the BJP didn’t go collectively. 

Now the BJP—the NDA they shaped with a couple of extra events—obtained about 18% votes. The BJP itself was simply 11%. Now they’ve come along with the AIADMK—let’s see how that interprets.

However once more, take a look at Tamil Nadu. Even within the Lok Sabha election, which the BJP hopes to experience on Modi’s recognition, the DMK-led alliance obtained 46% votes. Now if you happen to put NDA votes plus the AIADMK votes—23 and 18—it involves 41%. So even mixed, they have been about 6 share factors behind the DMK alliance.

In order that tells you—hopes are high quality, however numbers don’t help them.

SG: So that is an uncommon state the place each nationwide events are secondary, and coalitions can do with out them.

DK: Sure, however take a look at the DMK’s coalition—they’ve everyone. That’s their greatest energy. They’ve Left, the IUML, the VCK—for Muslims, Dalits—all these events signify sure caste teams. So that they have a a lot bigger coalition.

The AIADMK and the DMDK—Vijayakanth’s get together—has additionally joined.

SG: See that image of ours with late Vijayakanth—a few of us travelling in Tamil Nadu attempting to indicate off non-existent biceps. Then the third issue everyone seems to be speaking about — the Vijay issue, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), his get together.

DK: Now his get together—a variety of hype, he’s a giant star. However lately in district committee conferences, their very own individuals mentioned you want an alliance, in any other case we gained’t even get candidates. So stardom is seen, however floor organisation is just not there.

SG: So what precisely is his politics?

DK: Not clear in any respect. He calls the DMK his political enemy, the BJP his ideological enemy—past that nothing. Not giving interviews, not explaining what he brings. However he has road enchantment—big crowds. Some estimates say 15–20% vote base, however no one is aware of.

Now even get together cadre is uncertain about candidates. So star energy is ok, however we’ve seen many stars in Tamil Nadu politics.

SG: Do you see a little bit of Prashant Kishor-type phenomenon—buzz, crowds, social media traction?

DK: Sure, however Prashant Kishor was extra sensible. He knew he may go to the highest or the underside.

SG: Arsh or farsh (roughly that means, large success or a dramatic fall).

DK: Sure—right here Vijay is averse to alliances. Thinks he can do it alone. That appears bold.

SG: If he takes votes, the place from—the DMK or the AIADMK?

DK: Surveys say he’s reducing into each, roughly equally. Newest suggests barely extra from the DMK—about 2% extra. However nonetheless unsure—the election is a month away.

SG: Does the Christian issue play with Vijay?

DK: It’s being projected, however I don’t suppose so. He doesn’t mission himself as a Christian chief. His fan base cuts throughout caste and faith. However we’ve seen this earlier than—Kamal Haasan, Vijayakanth. After (former Tamil Nadu chief ministers) MGR (Maruthur Gopalan Ramachandran) and Jayalalithaa, that stage of fan-to-vote conversion hasn’t occurred.

SG: That mentioned, let’s come to Assam now. The Congress has been out for 2 phrases. A former Congressman is robust and searching for a 3rd time period. How does it look?

DK: Additionally setbacks for Congress—like Pradeep Bordoloi leaving.Large face—a four-term MLA, two-term MP, from Nagaon (Muslim-majority).

For somebody like him to stop tells you the way critical it’s. He mentioned he was humiliated—there should be one thing. This has been a Congress stronghold traditionally. However now it’s a setback.

In 2021, the Congress shaped a giant alliance—a Mahajot— 7–8 events, gave the NDA a tricky combat. Vote hole was lower than 1%—44% vs 43%. The BJP didn’t get majority alone. However this time, that alliance is gone. The All India United Democratic Entrance (AIUDF) not with Congress, the Bodoland Folks’s Entrance (BPF) now with the BJP. So, the opposition is fragmented.

SG: Is the Congress avoiding the AIUDF intentionally?

DK: Sure, besides final time when determined. Within the Lok Sabha, the AIUDF flopped with out the Congress. Now (AIUDF chief Badruddin) Ajmal will contest once more—however unclear how a lot Muslim vote he cuts.

Earlier with the Congress, they obtained 90% consolidated vote. Now unsure. Additionally attention-grabbing—the Congress has a transparent face right here: Gaurav Gogoi. Not formally introduced, however clear.

SG: And Himanta?

DK: Very clear technique—complete polarisation. After delimitation, Muslim voters concentrated in about 23 seats. He’s specializing in remaining 103 seats. Says: 23 for you, 103 for us.

SG: What’s your sense of Himanta, as a pacesetter and as a campaigner?

DK: Within the final election—I imply 2024 additionally, 2021 additionally—he’s massively common. The sort of join he has with the plenty is wonderful. However sure, on the incumbency of 10 years, once more for him additionally, let’s see how he interprets. However he is aware of their language, he is aware of what he’s speaking about.

As a pacesetter, as a strategist—you see, he first obtained former Congress chief Bhupen Borah onto his aspect—now a giant catch. So you possibly can name him the ‘Amit Shah of Assam’. After (Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister) Yogi Adityanath, most likely second most in demand. Additionally, he’s fairly younger—57. 

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Additionally Learn: Amit Shah gained’t lose sleep over Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Assam. Bengal is totally different

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Emergence of future leaders?

SG: So what you additionally see in these elections is a few future leaders developing. If Gaurav Gogoi pulls off one thing massive, one thing actually dramatic, then his stature within the Congress goes up. You’ll say, nevertheless, the chances for him are fairly steep, is it?

DK: Odds are steep. Additionally, the nationwide management generally hurts— like (Congress chief Mallikarjun) Kharge’s remarks on resettling evicted individuals went viral negatively. Gogoi has been cautious.

প্ৰতিগৰাকী লোকৰে ভৰসাৰ এক নাম গৌৰৱ গগৈ…
এইবাৰ তেওঁৰ নেতৃত্বতে অসমত ব’ব বিকাশৰ নৈ… pic.twitter.com/1aqayeqHN6

— Assam Congress (@INCAssam) March 16, 2026

SG: Lastly, Puducherry. What’s taking place there. It additionally has peculiar politics.

DK: Once more it’s the extension of Tamil Nadu politics. (Chief Minister) N. Rangaswamy— a former Congress chief minister, now together with his personal get together allied to the BJP—very talked-about.

The Congress nonetheless has (former chief minister V.) Narayanasamy as face, however not a lot buzz. Anti-incumbency exists, however the Opposition hasn’t capitalised. The DMK is pushing arduous, however the Congress doesn’t allow them to dominate there.

SG: So, you say that Puducherry politics is an extension of the Dravidian politics, the DMK politics. How then is the DMK not doing higher there? Why can’t the DMK swing it in the event that they’re allies?

DK: The Congress desires management. Identical subject on the BJP aspect—Rangaswamy hasn’t allowed the BJP full growth both.

SG: Thanks for serving to us perceive this higher. You actually reduce the litter. I assumed I’ll catch DK now as a result of tomorrow one thing else will dominate the conflict headlines. However home politics is equally essential. DK and his staff will now unfold out to all these states—be careful for his or her stories, each textual content and video.

(Edited by Tony Rai)

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