Congress MP Manickam Tagore stated people might have variations, however the social gathering is “greater than any one among us”. 

“When management decides, we settle for it with discipline-because unity is our best power,” he wrote on X Wednesday.

Girish Chodankar, the All India Congress Committee (AICC) in-charge for Tamil Nadu who headed the alliance negotiation committee, had beforehand clarified that his social gathering wouldn’t settle for something lower than 34-41 seats. Nonetheless, negotiations hit a wall post-28 February, prompting the Congress management to intervene.

Chidambaram and TN Congress President Ok. Selvaperuthagai met Chief Minister M.Ok. Stalin for Tuesday’s talks. DMK Deputy Common Secretary and MP Kanimozhi Karunanidhi was current on the assembly too.

Whereas DMK had unofficially set a deadline of three March to finish its seat-sharing talks with the Congress, the Stalin-Chidambaram assembly finally paved the way in which for the ultimate seat-sharing discussions Wednesday, ending the stalemate.

Earlier than the assembly, the DMK had provided the Congress 25 meeting seats, matching its 2021 tally, together with one Rajya Sabha seat. The Congress has been demanding 34 to 41 meeting seats and two Rajya Sabha seats.

Nonetheless, State Congress President Ok. Selvaperuthagai had dismissed reviews that the DMK had set a proper deadline for Congress to answer a seat-sharing supply.

DMK Organising Secretary R.S. Bharathi stated, “We’ve conveyed our supply. The ultimate negotiations might be made by our chief, who will announce the identical,” Bharathi stated.

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The grounds of the negotiations

The Congress, which contested 25 seats within the 2021 Tamil Nadu polls and gained 18, has been flexing its muscle within the seat-sharing talks this time amid its essential rival Bharatiya Janata Celebration’s aggressive bid to broaden within the state. The Congress has not been in energy in Tamil Nadu since 1967, however has had a bigger presence within the state than the BJP.

The Congress wouldn’t wish to cede any area for nationwide events, together with the BJP, in Tamil Nadu politics and wish to capitalise on any anti-BJP sentiment within the state as a nationwide social gathering. So, it’s jostling exhausting with its ally, DMK, for extra space.

The presence of actor-turned-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) this time had boosted the Congress’s bargaining power. Nonetheless, Congress leaders and analysts really feel that whereas it has a bargaining chip, it can’t afford to let its ties with the DMK bitter over seat-sharing.

Arun Kumar, Assistant Professor, Political Science, VIT Chennai, informed ThePrint, “This time the one purpose for stern negotiation was TVK. Congress can’t afford to depart DMK with out realizing the true power of TVK on the bottom. It was solely in 2014 that Congress contested the parliamentary elections alone, and solely in Kanyakumari may it retain the deposit. They don’t have an ample maintain on the vote financial institution.”

“The Congress and communist events can collectively win the elections by being part of the alliance, as they bring about collectively the minority and backward lessons, however leaving the alliance would have been a mistake,” he added.

Nonetheless, with the DMK having introduced in newer companions into its alliance this time, and with different allies reminiscent of Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) additionally bargaining for extra seats, the ruling social gathering was unable to entertain the Congress’s calls for past some extent.

Why Congress management intervened

Senior Congress leaders consider that going too exhausting on the DMK might have backfired, because the social gathering has restricted choices in Tamil Nadu by itself.

Within the seat-sharing talks, Congress has restricted leverage towards the DMK. Now, it’s now not indispensable for giving expression to the state’s anti‑BJP sentiments.

The DMK has taken a clearer opposing stance to the BJP.

A Congress functionary informed ThePrint, “The DMK has been a long-time ally, they usually backed Rahul Gandhi throughout the INDIA Bloc, giving the strongest assist to the alliance. The [Congress] social gathering wouldn’t wish to lose the alliance on the grounds of those variations, as a result of even it is aware of the worth of the DMK, regionally and nationally.”

The Congress is predicted to carry a rally in Chennai quickly, however functionaries stated that it may not be a significant present of power by the social gathering by itself.

“Breaking the alliance would isolate the social gathering in Tamil Nadu, and the power of the alliance is already established. It might be troublesome to ascertain a robust, confirmed vote financial institution to counter DMK on the seat-sharing talks,” one other Congress social gathering functionary stated.

Earlier than Chidambaram met Stalin Tuesday, Congress leaders Sonia Gandhi, Mallikarjun Kharge, and Ok.C. Venugopal had a gathering relating to the seat-sharing stalemate. 

DMK Spokesperson Saravanan Annadurai informed ThePrint, “With P. Chidambaram right here for talks, the intention is to finalise the seat sharing and finish the negotiations.”

Earlier Tuesday, Saravanan Annadurai, talking to reporters, stated that the Congress had expressed its dedication to resolving the seat-sharing stalemate and being part of the DMK-led alliance.

Commenting on speculations that the Congress was seeking to the TVK for an alliance, Saravanan Annadurai stated that nobody needed to kind an alliance with TVK. “There are too many points…Let it (TVK) resolve them, then it might discuss all the opposite points,” he emphasised.

Why Congress had extra to lose

Whereas TVK is a bargaining chip, the Congress lacks actual choices and must do way more to remain related in Tamil Nadu politics, in keeping with analysts.

Sunilkumar V.M., an electoral analyst and political science school at a non-public college in Chennai, informed ThePrint, “In comparison with Congress, VCK has proven their energy with a stronghold on minority votes, which is mirrored in social gathering conferences and different protests, however such a present of power has not been showcased by Congress in the previous couple of years.”

“Many senior leaders are additionally dropping their floor in areas of their dominance. Within the INDIA bloc, the DMK prolonged full assist to Rahul Gandhi. The DMK has taken a robust stand towards the BJP; even the Congress has not. If the alliance breaks, it should result in extra injury to the Congress than to the DMK, because the latter can also be contemplating minor events, with the minority vote banks, such because the Indian Union Muslim League, for alliances,” Sunilkumar V.M. added.

Profitable from areas reminiscent of Ponneri, Sriperumbudur, Erode, Sivakasi, and Vilavancode, the Congress secured 4.29 p.c of votes within the 2021 Tamil Nadu meeting elections. Nevertheless it additionally misplaced key battles in Uthangarai, Kallakurichi, and Coimbatore to the AIADMK or BJP.

Now that Chidambaram has intervened, the involvement of senior Congress leaders in Tamil Nadu politics must be one thing greater than rising the social gathering’s visibility, Professor Kumar stated.

Though Chidambaram has intervened, the dedication of Congress leaders, reminiscent of Rahul Gandhi, Kharge, or Sonia Gandhi is questionable as a result of they don’t go to Tamil Nadu as incessantly as BJP leaders, he stated. “Congress leaders have to be extra concerned.”

The DMK, in the meantime, has strengthened its choices with new companions, reminiscent of IUML and Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), and older companions, such because the VCK, Communist Celebration of India and the Communist Celebration of India-Marxist. This permits the DMK to compensate for any Congress shortfall if talks break down.

DMK’s minor allies

On condition that the newer or extra assertive companions have particular vote banks or vote banks in politically delicate areas, the DMK doesn’t have a lot room to accommodate the Congress’s calls for.

For instance, DMDK is a big “vote-diverting” power amongst sections of the Most Backward Courses (MBC) and sure Different Backwards Courses, particularly in elements of southern and central Tamil Nadu, commanding a considerable vote share in choose constituencies. DMDK may also help the DMK in fragmenting the NDA alliance in OBC‑heavy belts.

Furthermore, social gathering leaders say, the DMDK has introduced an alliance with the DMK for the primary time. Now, the DMK wouldn’t wish to stroll again on its phrase relating to the promised seats, simply to present extra to the Congress, as they’d not need the social gathering to lean in the direction of the opposition.

Equally, IUML can appeal to Muslim voters, particularly in Ramanathapuram, Tirunelveli, Kanyakumari, and a few pockets in Madurai and Coimbatore.

IUML has explicitly opposed the BJP in Tamil Nadu, strengthening the DMK’s ideological stance as a secular and minority‑pleasant alliance. Diminishing IUML’s allocation of seats would invite sturdy criticism.

Earlier Monday, Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK)—led by Thol Thirumavalavan—had their first spherical of seat-sharing talks with the DMK. The social gathering demanded 12 seats, almost double the seats it contested in 2021, whereas stating that it doesn’t search energy sharing.

Nonetheless, Kumar stated no social gathering can change the Congress for Tamil Nadu’s DMK, because it has a robust electoral base in Kanyakumari and different southern districts. It acts as a catalyst for the DMK, added Professor Kumar.

“With out the Congress, the DMK would have a problem in these areas, which is why it’s agreeing to present nearly 30 seats,” stated Kumar. “All of the events, together with the minor events, want to extend their vote share and political presence, so their share of seats can’t be diminished.”

(Edited by Madhurita Goswami)

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