Chennai: Actor-turned-politician Vijay’s electoral prospects stay largely unaffected by the Karur stampede, a confidential survey commissioned by the ruling DMK predicts. The findings, accessed by ThePrint, counsel Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) may safe a vote share of 23 % if it goes solo within the Tamil Nadu polls subsequent yr.

The survey was performed between 1 and 9 October, within the aftermath of the stampede throughout Vijay’s rally in Karur that resulted within the lack of 41 lives.

The survey coated 2.91 lakh respondents with a mean pattern measurement of 1,245 per meeting constituency. Respondents have been requested about their views on TVK becoming a member of fingers with the NDA, and whether or not they would help Vijay if his occasion have been to go it alone.

In Tamil Nadu, the NDA primarily includes the BJP and AIADMK.

In a state of affairs the place AIADMK, BJP and TVK be part of fingers underneath the NDA banner, the confidential survey locations DMK at 50 % vote share, NDA at 35 %, Seeman’s NTK at 12 %, and others at 3 %.

The survey additionally predicts that although the BJP, AIADMK, and TVK may collectively consolidate round 35 % of the vote, inner friction inside AIADMK and resistance in Tamil Nadu to the BJP’s ideological leanings may prohibit the attain of such an alliance.

Within the second state of affairs, if TVK have been to go solo, DMK’s vote share may dip to 45 %, AIADMK–BJP mix’s to 22 %, with Vijay’s occasion cornering 23 % of the vote. In such a state of affairs, help for Seeman’s NTK may drop to five %, the survey predicts.

“Within the state of affairs the place he (Vijay) contests independently, we may see that he’s consuming into the vote share of each occasion within the state,” a strategist who was concerned within the survey advised ThePrint on situation of anonymity.

Although the survey factors to a optimistic development for DMK, it additionally hints that Vijay might be a possible challenger within the long-run. “Public sentiment signifies that Vijay may emerge as a robust challenger to the DMK in 2029 and 2031,” reads the survey report.

The survey, nevertheless, was silent on what would occur if the TVK have been to affix fingers with AIADMK, and the 2 events have been to contest the elections unbiased of the BJP.

The strategist quoted earlier mentioned such a risk was mentioned internally. “A survey in such a state of affairs can be being deliberate, nevertheless it largely seems just like the struggle on the bottom appears to be state autonomy vs Union authorities.”

One other strategist a part of the method advised ThePrint that Vijay’s recognition seems to be translating into political credibility in some measure. “Whereas we imagine TVK at the moment lacks an organised cadre construction, findings additionally counsel that his recognition is translating right into a vote share and this development may redefine Tamil Nadu’s political order within the years forward.”

Though most occasion members weren’t conscious of the confidential survey, DMK spokesperson and MLA C.V.M.P. Ezhilarasan mentioned its findings reinforce the idea that the 2026 meeting polls may take the type of an ideological battle between DMK and NDA.

“The saffron occasion at all times positions itself because the nucleus of an anti-DMK entrance. Whereas two eventualities within the survey level to a optimistic development for DMK, with what occurred yesterday in Supreme Courtroom with TVK’s case, the third state of affairs (AIADMK and TVK), may even be a optimistic development for DMK as it could once more be a struggle between Tamil Nadu and Delhi,” he advised ThePrint.

The TVK, then again, went one step additional—submitting that its graph would solely rise as elections neared. Celebration spokesperson Raj Mohan advised ThePrint that they are not looking for validation from DMK, since they know Vijay’s credibility amongst voters is unbroken.

“Simply 48 hours after the Karur stampede incident, we got here to know that the individuals on the bottom have been with us and our credibility was not broken. So, we are not looking for validation from DMK. The credibility and the vote share would enhance additional within the coming months and the upcoming surveys in November and December will reveal these particulars,” he mentioned.

The AIADMK, in the meantime, dismissed the findings citing DMK’s ‘lack of credibility’.

A celebration spokesperson who didn’t want to be named advised ThePrint that the survey was performed merely to maintain the DMK management completely satisfied. “When there is no such thing as a credibility of DMK authorities’s information, we can’t count on their survey numbers to be credible. Technique companies have been employed by DMK and therefore the experiences will certainly be given to maintain their bosses completely satisfied. So, allow them to be proud of their numbers; election outcomes will present the true information.”

(Edited by Amrtansh Arora)

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