I had divided the political marketing campaign in Tamil Nadu for the 2026 meeting election into ‘earlier than Karur’ and ‘after Karur’. Appears prefer it should even be cut up into ‘earlier than rain’ and ‘after rain’.

Not ready for the Election Fee notification, main events within the state launched their campaigns just a few months in the past. AIADMK basic secretary Edappadi Okay Palaniswami began his roadshows in Coimbatore in July with the slogan ‘Makkalai kaappom, Tamizhagathai meetpom’ (Let’s defend our folks, redeem Tamil Nadu). DMK, in the meantime, has been working extra on its organizational set-up, activating its district and grassroots cadres. Chief minister M Okay Stalin centered on projecting his govt’s efficiency, deputy chief minister Udhayanidhi Stalin and different ministers went round addressing cadres and folks. Actor and TVK president Vijay made everybody sit up and be aware of the swelling crowds as his bandwagon wound by means of the districts. After which, on Sep 27, the Karur stampede occurred.

Forty-one folks died, Vijay went into digital hiding, EPS slowed down his roadshows, and DMK continued with its cadre activation and govt promotion. On Oct 13, Supreme Court docket suspended the Aruna Jagadeesan fee and the particular investigation crew that TN govt had appointed to research the stampede and ordered a CBI inquiry. Now, EPS is again in motion, taking up Stalin with renewed vigour whereas opening channels to get Vijay into his alliance with or with out BJP. Vijay has proven the magnanimity to satisfy the grieving households of Karur – at a spot of his comfort.

Regardless of the Supreme Court docket observations and the possible political reconfiguration, DMK has been capable of retain the sting, at the very least in public notion. Whereas the political climate hasn’t shaken the ruling social gathering, the meteorological climate could properly pose the largest problem to the DMK alliance. Monsoon has at all times been linked to the political prospects of ruling events, particularly when the rains occur nearer to the elections. An excellent monsoon typically means good harvest, joyful farmers, good financial system, and a contented govt. However when the rain exceeds ‘regular’ and preparedness falls brief, it spells doom for farmers and bother for the government.

The north-east monsoon, with its accompanying cyclones, has simply began, and the Cauvery delta area is already in misery. As TOI reporter Antony Fernando wrote final week, the government has thus far procured solely 5.6 lakh tonnes of paddy. Even when the government manages to take the projected 9.5 lakh tonnes of the Kuruvai procurement, its godowns can’t maintain greater than 7.5 lakh tonnes (and there’s appreciable stockpile from the earlier season). With insufficient storage services, a lot of the procured paddy has germinated, making them match for less than rooster feed. And large piles of harvested paddy lie soaked in rain.

EPS, who has been profitable in cultivating an agriculturalist picture for himself, wasted no time. He was the primary to go to the wailing farmers of Thanjavur. Pausing to carry a fistful of the dirty produce as farmers poured out their grievance, EPS made nice visible affect. And that’s one thing DMK must be frightened about. Blaming the Union govt’s fortified rice scheme for delay in procurement and disruption of provide chain wouldn’t console the farmers. Agriculture contributes lower than 13 per cent of Tamil Nadu’s earnings, however greater than 55 per cent of the state’s inhabitants is determined by agriculture; 80 per cent of them are farmers.

If copious rain means misery for farmers, it spells catastrophe for our cities. Chennai went below water in 2005, 2015 and 2023 (to not rely the lesser floods previously 20 years), and the town’s monsoon preparedness stays abysmal. Chennai’s 3,040km of drains cowl little greater than half of the town’s roads. With 25 per cent of drain interlinking work remaining incomplete, when heavens open, it’ll be hell down right here.

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