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What’s at Stake for Indian Agriculture in Trump’s Commerce Deal?

Anuj Srivas

Indian farmers have expressed concern that New Delhi has made too many concessions to Washington after the 2 nations brokered a brand new commerce deal that may decrease tariffs.

Underneath the phrases of the deal that was specified by a joint assertion from each nations launched on Saturday, India will “get rid of or cut back tariffs on all U.S. industrial items” and different meals and agricultural merchandise.

In the meantime, the U.S. will apply a reciprocal tariff fee of 18% on items from India, together with textiles and attire, leather-based and footwear, plastic and rubber, natural chemical compounds, and sure equipment, the joint assertion added.

The phrases have been launched after U.S. President Donald Trump introduced a commerce cope with India, stating that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had promised to halt Russian oil purchases.

Modi lauded the brand new commerce deal in a put up on social media platform X afterward Saturday, saying it will open up alternatives and generate jobs.

However Indian farmer unions weren’t satisfied, calling the deal a “whole give up” to American agricultural giants.

“Indian business, agriculture … at the moment are beneath grave risk of low cost imports that shall be dumped into Indian markets,” the Samyukt Kisan Morcha (SKM), a coalition of a number of farmers’ unions, mentioned in an announcement following the announcement.

The group additionally referred to as on farmers to hitch a nationwide protest on Thursday.

What’s on the desk?

The joint assertion states that India will “get rid of or cut back” tariffs on a “big selection of U.S. meals and agricultural merchandise.”

This consists of tree nuts, some recent fruit, soybean oil, wine, spirits and different “further merchandise” that weren’t specified.

Siraj Hussain, a former agriculture ministry high official, mentioned Indian customers have been buying extra nuts, “so it’s import could not have a lot influence on native manufacturing,” and can assist fulfill excessive demand.

Home growers do fear, nevertheless, about low cost imports on gadgets akin to apples, which they consider might have dire impacts on native producers.

“Import of recent fruits akin to apples … will wreck the farmers,” SKM mentioned. Officers hope safeguards included into the settlement — akin to import quotas or minimal import costs for commodities together with apples — will cut back the influence of overseas competitors.

New Delhi’s promise of decrease duties on dried distillers’ grains and crimson sorghum for animal feed might additionally cut back the necessity for native soybean meal.

Opposition lawmaker Jairam Ramesh mentioned the transfer to ease imports of dried distillers’ grains and soybean oil would harm “tens of millions of soybean farmers” in key Indian states akin to Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh.

What’s off the desk?

To stem considerations, India’s commerce minister, Piyush Goyal, reassured farmers that their pursuits can be safeguarded, including that the important thing crimson strains that had been drawn by New Delhi had not been crossed.

He mentioned “no concessions” had been prolonged in “delicate areas” akin to grains, spices, dairy, poultry, meat and a number of other greens and fruits — together with potatoes, oranges and strawberries.

The commerce minister additionally mentioned genetically modified crops weren’t a part of the settlement.

This consists of GM soybean, which the U.S. has searched arduous to search out new markets for.

Small farms ‘can’t compete’

Whereas the farm sector contributes simply 16% to India’s gross home product, it offers livelihood to over 45% of the inhabitants.

This makes the business a key voting bloc typically wooed by political events. Farmer teams have additionally proven, on a number of events, that they’re a road pressure to be reckoned with.

In 2021, the federal government deserted plans to reform the sector after months of intense protests that blocked the nationwide capital’s highways and led to Delhi’s historic Pink Fort complicated being stormed by tractors.

“Indian farms are very small they usually can’t actually compete with extremely sponsored U.S. agriculture,” Hussain, the previous agriculture ministry official, mentioned.

India and U.S. commerce

In January-November 2025, when New Delhi was negotiating with Washington, Indian imports of American agricultural items rose 34% 12 months on 12 months, raking in slightly below $2.9 billion.

High imports included cotton, soybean oil, ethanol and numerous nuts akin to almonds. This occurred even earlier than the commerce deal, though the rise is partly attributable to India lowering tariffs on a few of these U.S. gadgets.

Consultants have mentioned {that a} additional discount on duties for merchandise akin to soybean oil, which was introduced within the joint assertion, will seemingly result in a soar in items being imported by India from the U.S.

[Courtesy: The Japan Times, Japan’s largest and oldest English-language daily newspaper.]

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US Commerce Deal Will Destroy Farmers by Flooding India with American Farm Produce: SKM

Newsclick Report

Expressing outrage over US President Donald Trump’s announcement on social media on a US-India commerce deal on the Narendra Modi authorities permitting 0% import tariff on US items, the Samyukta Kisan Morcha (SKM), a farmers’ collective accused the Centre of “surrendering to the stress of US Imperialism.”

In a press assertion, SKM mentioned this transfer will destroy the already struggling farm sector, wreck rural livelihoods by flooding the Indian markets with American farm produce.

The SKM additionally introduced village-level campaigns in opposition to the commerce deal from February 4-11, the place the effigies of Modi and Trump can be burnt.

“Whereas US president Donald Trump is defending the agricultural economic system of America, it’s shameful that the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is succumbing to interrupt the spine of the agricultural economic system of India,” the SKM assertion learn.

Learn the complete assertion beneath.

SKM Denounces Modi Govt.’s Complete Give up Earlier than Imperialism

US commerce deal will destroy Indian farmers by flooding the market with US agricultural produce

• Crops to be instantly hit are soybean, maize, cotton, and dairy; livelihood of crores of farmers shall be jeopardised
• Requires marketing campaign in villages from 4th to eleventh February, burn effigies of Modi and Trump in mass conferences
• Assist Common Strike on 12 February with mass protest actions

SKM strongly condemns the betrayal of the folks, particularly farmers by the Modi Authorities permitting zero per cent import tariff of US items surrendering to the stress of US Imperialism.

SKM recollects the declaration of the Prime Minister Modi on fifteenth August 2025 on the rampart of Pink Fort that “he’s personally able to pay heavy worth to guard the pursuits of the farmers” and now shamelessly bowing right down to the dictates of the US President Donald Trump for zero import tax to permit free movement of US agricultural produces into Indian market. Farmers won’t ever forgive Modi for this “historic betrayal”.

This commerce deal to permit Indian markets to be flooded by extremely sponsored US agricultural merchandise will devastate crores of small and center farmers’ households in India. The US has solely 18.8 lakh farmers as per the latest survey in 2024 in comparison with 14.65 crore operational holdings in India as per the agricultural census of 2015. 48 % of the work pressure and 65% of the inhabitants in India relies on agriculture and allied sectors.

Based on US Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins, beneath the deal, the US will “export extra American farm merchandise to India’s huge market, lifting costs, and pumping money into rural America”, serving to cut back the US’s 1.3 billion greenback agricultural commerce deficit with India.  Whereas US president Donald Trump is defending the agricultural economic system of America, it’s shameful that the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is succumbing to interrupt the spine of the agricultural economic system of India.

SKM requires marketing campaign in opposition to Modi Govt. in villages from 4th to eleventh February, burn effigies of each Narendra Modi and Donald Trump and make the Common Strike referred to as on twelfth February profitable with huge protest actions at Tehsil and concrete centres throughout India.

[Courtesy: Newsclick, an Indian news website founded by Prabir Purkayastha in 2009, who also serves as the Editor-in-Chief.]

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Editorial addition:

The SKM’s prediction that the US commerce deal will destroy Indian farmers is clear from information reviews that US farm exports to India have been surging even earlier than the commerce deal.

Based on reviews revealed within the Indian Categorical and The Japan Occasions, In January-November 2025, when New Delhi was negotiating with Washington, Indian imports of American agricultural items rose 34% 12 months on 12 months, from $2.13 billion to $2.85 billion.

US exports to India have been led by tree nuts, cotton and soyabean oil. Throughout January-November 2025, as in comparison with the identical 11 months of the earlier 12 months:

• Tree nuts—primarily almonds and pistachios—imports grew by 32.2% to $1.3 billion;
• India allowed duty-free imports of cotton from August to December 2025, due to which US cotton exports to India zoomed from $209 million to $378 million year-on-year;
• Following India lowering its efficient import obligation on crude soyabean oil from 27.5% to 16.5% in 31 Might 2025, its imports from the US zoomed from nearly zero to 212 million.

[Source: Harish Damodaran, “US farm exports to India have been surging even with no trade deal”, The Indian Express, 4 February 2026.]

The above figures and reductions in agricultural import duties on cotton and crude soyabean oil point out that India has been enjoyable import curbs on US agricultural merchandise even earlier than the US commerce deal in a bid to appease Trump.

With the commerce deal having the clause that India would open “further merchandise” to US imports within the coming years, it’s apparent that the SKM’s considerations are usually not unfounded.

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India to Remove Tariffs on Industrial and ‘Huge Array’ of Agricultural Items: Jamieson Greer

The Wire Employees

Underneath the Indo-US ‘commerce deal’ that President Donald Trump first introduced on Monday, India will get rid of tariffs on ‘nearly all’ industrial items in addition to agri-food gadgets together with tree nuts, wines, spirits, vegatables and fruits however would retain protections on some agricultural merchandise, Washington’s high commerce negotiator has mentioned.

Talking to CNBC on Tuesday (February 3) at a time when no particulars of the deal have in any other case been made public, US Commerce Consultant Jamieson Greer mentioned that the deal continues to be being ‘papered’ however that “we all know the specifics” and “we all know the small print”.

India would additionally cut back tariffs on chemical compounds and medical gadgets whereas the US would preserve an 18% levy as introduced by Trump, mentioned Greer. The 2 sides have agreed that New Delhi will undertake a “course of for recognising sure US requirements” as a part of decreasing technical non-tariff commerce boundaries, he added.

He additionally mentioned “there are loads of alternatives” for India to diversify its oil provides to incorporate extra crude from Venezuela and the Gulf relative to Russia.

Earlier within the day Union commerce minister Piyush Goyal, who didn’t provide any particulars of the deal, mentioned that it will “shield [the] pursuits of our delicate sectors of agriculture and dairy” and {that a} joint assertion can be issued “shortly”.

Neither facet has issued an official communique on the deal.

Greer on Tuesday described the deal as a “very thrilling alternative” for each nations.

“On the one hand we are going to proceed to take care of some degree of tariff in opposition to India – 18% – as a result of now we have this large commerce deficit with them, however they’ve additionally agreed to scale back their tariffs for us on quite a lot of agricultural merchandise, manufactured items, chemical compounds, medical gadgets, and many others,” he mentioned in an interview to CNBC’s Joe Kernen.

Requested in regards to the extent of Indian tariff strains that may go to “zero” as urged by Trump, Greer mentioned Indian levies on “nearly the whole lot” amongst industrial items, i.e. 98% to 99% of those merchandise, can be accomplished away with.

As for agriculture there may be “an unlimited array” of products that may see an elimination of tariffs, he mentioned. “India, like each nation on the earth, together with america, has some safety round some sure key areas. Properly, they’ll proceed to regulate that, we’ll proceed to work on entry, however for quite a lot of issues: tree nuts, wines, spirits, fruits, greens, and many others., they’re happening to zero.”

Indian resistance to the Trump administration’s insistence that it open up its extremely protected agriculture sector was reported to be a key stumbling block within the commerce talks that each side started in February final 12 months, with New Delhi unwilling to grant concessions for corn, soybeans, wheat and dairy, which Greer notably didn’t point out on Tuesday.

New Delhi has protected agricultural and dairy merchandise, together with nuts, vegatables and fruits in some circumstances, from its latest free commerce agreements with different nations.

The 2 sides additionally reached an settlement on lowering non-tariff commerce boundaries, Greer mentioned. India is to have a “course of for recognising sure US requirements” – that are “efficient” and “generally too efficient” – that may undergo its “personal processes” earlier than being finalised.

On the president’s suggestion that India might purchase Venezuelan oil in lieu of Russian crude, Greer reiterated the Trump administration’s argument that Indian purchases of Russian oil are fuelling Moscow’s battle effort. The Indians are “winding down their buy of Russian oil” and “we’ve been monitoring that”, he mentioned.

“Clearly, they need to diversify from different sources, too, whether or not it’s Venezuela or the Gulf, and many others. There are loads of alternatives to do that. The Indians are making the correct alternative,” the commerce consultant added.

Trump introduced the commerce deal on Monday night time, saying that Washington would scale back its ‘reciprocal’ tariff from 25% to 18% whereas India would “transfer ahead to scale back their Tariffs and Non Tariff Limitations in opposition to america to ZERO”. New Delhi would additionally purchase US items, together with power, agricultural merchandise and expertise price a whopping $500 billion, he claimed.

He additionally claimed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had agreed to cease buying Russian oil and “[buying] way more from america and doubtlessly Venezuela”. A US embassy spokesperson confirmed on Monday that the US’s 25% ‘penalty’ tariff on India’s procurement of Russian crude would stop to exist.

Responding to the president’s announcement over forty minutes later, Modi welcomed the tariff discount however talked about neither a commerce deal nor any Indian concessions.

Reuters on Tuesday cited Indian refining sources as saying that India can’t change its Russian oil imports wholesale with Venezuelan crude. The heavy South American oil might be processed in giant volumes solely by Reliance and Nayara and never state refiners, they added.

[Courtesy: The Wire, an Indian nonprofit news and opinion website. It was founded in 2015 by Siddharth Varadarajan, Sidharth Bhatia and M. K. Venu.]

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Perils of Opening India’s Agricultural Market to United States Enterprise

Nalin Verma

‘Uttam Kheti, Madhyam Vaan, Nirghin Seva, Bheekh Nidaan.’

These phrases in Bhojpuri, from a folks tune standard within the faraway fields and villages of Purvanchal distil a code of life in a number of phrases. Sung within the purvanchal area spanning japanese Uttar Pradesh and western Bihar, they roughly imply ‘agriculture is the worthiest pursuit, commerce a middling occupation and repair is the worst – even begging is best than that’.

This folks knowledge could sound harsh to city ears, but it surely captures an agrarian worldview formed by generations of lived expertise. It additionally affords a telling lens from which to view the present discuss opening India’s agricultural market to america.

Often, this debate is framed within the language of worldwide integration, commerce effectivity, market entry and client alternative. Not often is it considered from the vantage level of Indian fields and farmers, for whom agriculture just isn’t merely an occupation however a way of life, remembering, asserting dignity and freedom – and surviving in opposition to the percentages.

So, let or not it’s clear: your author isn’t any professional on worldwide commerce or enterprise. He speaks, as an alternative, as one who has spent a big a part of his life as an agriculturist, or listening carefully to farming communities, and finally anchoring his tales within the folklore and lived realities of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh.

The distinction

In India, agriculture just isn’t an “summary” sector, ready to be liberalised. It’s an emotionally-connected and fragile ecosystem sustained by collective reminiscence, social bonds and slim margins of hope. For farmers, their fields are as valuable because the start of a son. Oxen, cows and buffaloes are usually not merely sources of sustenance; they’re symbols of dignity, continuity and pleasure.

This stands in sharp distinction to American agriculture, which is constructed on scale, heavy subsidies, superior expertise and company modes of organisation. Indian agriculture, in distinction, rests on small landholdings, unpaid household labour, seasonal uncertainty and cultural continuity.

Greater than 85% of Indian farmers are small or marginal. But their properties, cattle wealth and farm fields stay the last word fallback for households – particularly for youngsters who lose jobs, fall in poor health or endure enterprise losses within the unfarily aggressive city ecosystem.

Recall the lakhs of migrant labourers from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, who, throughout the COVID-19 disaster of 2020-22, needed to stroll a whole bunch if not 1000’s of kilometres from Delhi, Punjab, Maharashtra and elsewhere to succeed in their properties. To them, recollections of that lengthy march to their villages are nonetheless recent. They trudged house, carrying on their drained backs or in carts their infants and belongings. In these moments of profound misery, they instinctively selected their villages over cities, regardless of official claims that they’d be supplied meals, drugs, oxygen and care.

So, the truth that each India and America have huge farmlands doesn’t make them related. No such lengthy march occurred in america of America throughout the pandemic. Nor do Indian farmers compete with American farmers. They merely coexist with them – as they do with nature and as they need to do with coverage – typically an uneasy coexistence.

Opening India’s market to farm produce from america, with out sturdy safeguards for home farmers, just isn’t ‘competitors’. It’s an uneven contest between an industrial system and a survival economic system. And it might nicely sign the start of the tip of India’s cultural and civilisational threads, woven round agriculture.

In america, agriculture is primarily a supply of earnings and revenue for big firms and enterprise homes that take pleasure in heavy clout throughout the governance system. In India, agriculture denotes id, tradition and social continuity. In america, it’s largely one other means to generate earnings and maximise revenue.

Not like Indian farmers, American farmers don’t worship their oxen and cows, nor do they have a good time harvest as a civilisational ritual. Their cattle wealth is destined to grow to be steak, meatball and bacon – commodities that be a part of the worldwide provide chains, however little else.

Seen purely via an Indian agriculturist’s lens, highly effective firms and enterprise homes seem to have impressed US President Donald Trump’s choice to push for an agricultural commerce cope with an India nonetheless mired in rural poverty, inequality and stark disparities.

When subsidised American produce enters Indian markets, worth indicators are sure to break down. For a small farmer, even a modest worth dip can decide whether or not a daughter or son goes to highschool, or whether or not a mortgage is rolled over as soon as once more. Such realities hardly ever discover area in commerce negotiations.

Dairying will harm too

The US-India commerce deal might wreak havoc on the nation’s dairy sector too. India’s dairy economic system is decentralised, household-based and part of on a regular basis rural life. One or two heads of cattle typically present a gradual earnings and supply of milk protein, particularly when rainfall fails. In village properties, cash earned from milk and curd pays for medicines, college charges and groceries.

American dairy, in contrast, is industrial, export-oriented and closely subsidised. Opening India’s dairy sector to such imports wouldn’t merely disrupt a market; it will unsettle tens of millions of rural households. It could collide head-on with cultural practices and moral norms that Indian farmers and customers nonetheless maintain pricey.

That is exactly why dairy has traditionally remained a political and social crimson line in India. Diluting it within the identify of commerce can be reckless.

As a folktale teller, this author worries not solely about earnings loss, however about narrative loss; about villages that cease telling tales as a result of the land not listens. However even past this loss, what India dangers in substantive phrases can also be the lack of its ethical and strategic standing, domestically in addition to at international boards such because the World Commerce Organisation.

India has constantly argued on worldwide platforms that agriculture in growing nations can’t be handled like every other tradable commodity. Opening its personal market beneath stress from america would weaken that long-held place, diminishing India’s credibility and authority, significantly within the eyes of its South Asian neighbours.

Domestically, such a transfer might provoke sturdy political backlash. Agriculture just isn’t peripheral to Indian democracy; it lies on the very coronary heart of its anxieties, mobilisations and aspirations.

Dying of folklore

Grasp storyteller Munshi Premchand’s “Do Bailon ki Katha” (A Story of Two Oxen) centres on Heera and Moti, oxen who solid a deep friendship, rebelled in opposition to their new proprietor after their previous grasp offered them, escaped the cruelty of a cattle shelter, and finally returned to the person who as soon as liked and cared for them.

Such because the tales of resilience, endurance and survival within the face of bondage and exploitation that stem from Indian farms. Such tories danger being stripped of all which means if a brand new commerce regime renders cattle into merely financial models, stripped of their cultural and emotional significance.

Or recall Mahendra Kapoor’s soulful rendition within the 1967 blockbuster Upkar: “Meray desh ki dharti sona ugley, ugley heera moti… bailon kay galon mein jab ghungroo, jeevan ka raag sunaatey hain. (The earth of my nation yields gold and diamonds; when bells across the oxen’s neck sing the rhythm of life.)” To generations raised after a US-India commerce deal reshapes rural India, such a tune could sound prefer it was from one other planet.

A means out

This author readily admits his lack of understanding in worldwide commerce relations or geopolitical technique. But, from the lens of an agriculturist and folklorist, he affords a humble suggestion to India’s coverage dispensation. This isn’t an argument in opposition to commerce, per se. But when India chooses to interact america on agriculture, it should shield dairy unequivocally, retain tariff safeguards for weak crops and make investments considerably in farmer resilience earlier than opening markets.

Most significantly, policymakers should recognise that small farmers are residents first, and entitled to safety from the governments they elect, and producers second.

[Nalin Verma is a New Delhi based journalist, author and folklorist. Courtesy: The Wire, an Indian nonprofit news and opinion website. It was founded in 2015 by Siddharth Varadarajan, Sidharth Bhatia and M. K. Venu.]